Multifamily Absorption Keeps Pace with Population Growth

Graph of Boise's multifamily projects compared with population growth

Idaho continues to gain recognition as one of the fastest growing states, with the Boise MSA receiving a significant proportion of that population growth.

Ada County alone grew nearly 5 percent between 2017 to 2018. This compares to Idaho’s growth of nearly 2 percent and the national average growth of less than 1 percent.

As the population grows, new construction for multifamily product has seen strong absorption, keeping occupancy levels flat despite the increase in supply. 

Alpine State Bank Identifies First Location, in Downtown Boise

Alpine State Bank plans new location in downtown Boise

The Situation: New Idaho community bank plans first location in downtown Boise

  • A new Idaho community bank decided to launch operations in the Treasure Valley by targeting Boise as their first Alpine State Bank location.
  • The bank, hoping to open in the market as soon as possible, reached out to Thornton Oliver Keller to identify temporary space, since they had already identified a location which required a lengthy remodel.

Industrial Vacancy Hits Historical Low in Airport Submarket

Former Shopko Distribution Facility Boise Idaho

Industrial vacancy in the Airport submarket, one of the most active industrial areas in Boise, hit 1.04% in August. This is the submarket’s lowest vacancy rate on record.

Along with low vacancy, the submarket has only 1.4 months of supply and has reached nearly 300,000 square feet of net absorption so far this year.

Most of 2019’s largest industrial deals have occurred in the Airport submarket, including Solitco's leasing of the former Shopko distribution center (347,000 SF) and Western Power Sports' expansion of their facility by 105,000 SF.

J. Oates Portrait Design Selects New, Optimal Location

J Oates Photography opens new location in Boise

The Situation: Rebranded company seeks greater exposure

  • After calling on one of JP Green’s listed properties, the owner of J.Oates Portrait Design expressed interest in engaging JP as a tenant rep in the company’s search for a high visibility retail location.
  • As a result of an extensive rebranding initiative, J.Oates was seeking to expand the physical size of their studio while also garnering critical exposure for their new brand which was strategically positioned as a high-end professional portrait studio.

Kohl's Announces Twin Falls Store

Kohls storefront mall

The Magic Valley Mall is welcoming national retailer Kohl’s. The department store will be taking over the 68,700 square foot space that previously housed Sears. The parking lot and interior of the space are currently under construction. With Shopko’s recent closure, Kohl’s announcement signals a bright future for the mall and is expected to attract more shoppers. 

Retail Market Exhibits Varied Dynamics

Retail space at The Village at Meridian

Unsurprisingly, 2019 Retail net absorption has been heavily impacted by the three Shopko (285,400 SF total) and one Sears (120,800 SF) store closures.  These combined closures have put the Retail market on pace for its lowest absorption since 2009 and net absorption could remain negative throughout 2019 unless some of these recent big-box vacancies are able to backfill. Additional big-box closures have not been announced, so total vacancy will likely remain steady throughout the remainder of the year.

64% of Retailers Are Opening New Stores in 2019

National retail store North Face Idaho

"New data shows that more retailers are opening more stores than are closing them." ICSC just released a report by the IHL Group, that reviewed 1,660 national retail chains and that finds "roughly five retail chains are opening stores for every single retailer that is closing them this year... The firm also reports that the number of chains adding stores in 2019 has increased by 56 percent, while the number of chains closing them has decreased by 66 percent." 

Capitalizing on Boise's Growth - Options Explored

Boise Idaho aerial of growth pattern

Don Day at BoiseDEV recently authored a significant "deep dive" article exploring Boise's options to best optimize future growth, titled "Where will Boise grow? Ownership, geography, affordability drive future plans." 

The piece offers thoughtful insight into a myriad of considerations that impact Boise's present and future development. Interesting points made by the article include:

Idaho's Job Growth Rate Strong

Boise Idaho capitol building

In an effort to evaluate the labor-market and general economic health for all the states and the District of Columbia, the Business Insider recently analyzed states' unemployment rate, job growth, per-capita GDP, GDP growth, average weekly wages, and wage growth.


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